Case Value Calculator: what is your CRE dispute worth?
Beta — modeling in active developmentA structured, rules-based estimate of litigation exposure across 8 commercial real estate categories — probability range × damages range, never a single number, and every result traces to a specific rule or a real cited case below it. Describe your case in your own words and/or drop in your pleadings — AI identifies the type of dispute, extracts the facts, and writes up the reasoning for you.
Everyone in a dispute overestimates their own case
predicted the outcomes of their own cases before trial. As a group they were overconfident, and their accuracy did not improve with years of experience.
Goodman-Delahunty, Granhag, Hartwig & Loftus, Psychology, Public Policy, and Law (2010) ↗
of plaintiffs who turned down a settlement offer and went to trial or arbitration did no better than the defendant's last offer, in 2,054 cases. Defendants paid more than the plaintiff's last demand 24.3% of the time, and their mistakes cost more.
Kiser, Asher & McShane, Journal of Empirical Legal Studies (2008) ↗
of claims this calculator rated "favorable" (60–75% likely) were won on liability; claims it rated "weak" won 13% and "strong" 95%. Measured on 178 claims in 33 resolved cases, each checked against the court's opinion.
A party's own lawyer has a client to please and a fee riding on the answer. This calculator weighs both sides' facts the same way every time and says how often its ratings come true. Where it is weaker today is how much: winners often recover less than everything they claim, and we publish those misses too while we rebuild the damages measure.
This tool is in beta. The underlying probability and damages modeling is still being actively developed and refined as more real case data — settlements, judgments, and consent decrees — is incorporated. Ranges shown today should be treated as an early, evolving estimate, not a finished or stable model.
This is a transparent, explainable framework calibrated against real, cited case outcomes and (where relevant) state law — not a black-box statistical prediction, and not a substitute for judicial or arbitral resolution of an actual dispute. Every probability and damages range shown is grounded in either a specific legal rule or a comparable case cited in the results.
This tool does not provide legal advice and does not predict the outcome of any specific matter. Litigation outcomes depend on facts, evidence, jurisdiction, and counsel that a short questionnaire cannot capture. Discuss an actual matter with counsel →
Read the full calculator methodology → · See it applied to real cases → · How it scores on real outcomes →
What a real result looks like
Illustrative scenario: a retail tenant on a 10-year lease with 3 years remaining stops paying rent and vacates; the landlord sues for the unpaid rent and the accelerated remaining-term rent. None of these facts are real — but the two citations below are: they're drawn from CREdocket's actual, independently-verified case-law database, the same one every real analysis is grounded in.
Best-guess case value: $655,000
Even in the worst case here, this analysis nets out to a gain for Landlord — a contingent recovery, not an exposure. Under ASC 450-30, a contingent gain like this is generally not booked as a receivable until it's realized or realization is assured, however likely it looks here.
Not accounting or legal advice — a starting framework for your own auditors and counsel, derived from the probability-weighted estimate above.
Unpaid Rent
90–97% likelihoodUndisputed accrued rent on a written lease is close to open-and-shut absent a real defense to the underlying debt.
Accelerated Rent
65–90% likelihoodLease has an acceleration clause; damages reflect the remaining 3-year term rent, offset by the landlord's duty to mitigate through re-letting.
This is a probability-weighted prediction generated from the documents provided, not a legal opinion, adjudication, or substitute for counsel — see the full disclaimer below the tool.
Generates a real PDF using the exact same report code every paid analysis produces — so you can see the actual deliverable, not just a description of it.
How it did on cases whose outcome is known
We ran the live calculator on real commercial real estate cases from published appellate opinions, giving it only the opinion's facts and each side's contentions with every statement of the award or holding removed, then compared its range with the final result after any appeal. Its range contained the final outcome in 17 of 32 scored cases (v4.3). Three recent examples:
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5th and Walnut Parking LLC v. City of Des Moines
Calculator range: $0 – $20.92M Final outcome: $4.35M Within the range -
Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc. v. BlueRoad Fontanel, LLC
Calculator range: $12.16M – $23.29M Final outcome: $13.9M Within the range -
CLE Venture Fund, L.P. v. Coventry Partners, L.L.C.
Calculator range: $-812,000 – $2.45M Final outcome: $1.74M Within the range
What is a dispute like yours worth? Commercial lease dispute · Commercial loan, foreclosure or guaranty claim · Commercial construction defect claim · Commercial condemnation claim · Zoning or land-use claim · Premises liability claim against a commercial property · REIT securities or fiduciary claim · Commercial property contamination claim